Super Tuesday

Like Tony Blair yours truly went to bed last Tuesday night thinking that John Kerry was on his way to fulfilling his life long ambition of becoming the most powerful man in the world. I woke up at 5:30am dreaming about Kerry and Bush (How sad is that?!). Running downstairs I switched on the TV only to discover that the election was in the balance. A couple of hours later it was clear, baring some massive disaster/miracle, that President George W. Bush was on his way back to the White House. The reaction has been fascinating – The Daily Mirror screamed on its front page – ‘How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?’ The world was bemused, Republicans were delighted and every newspaper in Britain blamed the Evangelicals.

A Week Later

Now that I am sitting in a hotel room in Atlanta, watching Fox, I have an opportunity to reflect upon the whole thing. Firstly a confession – I actually wanted Bush to win. To some of my American brothers and sisters that will be seen as a truism – like stating that I am for Jesus Christ and against sin. To some of my fellow Scots it will seem like treachery. (Of course these are just generalisations – I have American Christian friends who voted against Bush, and I know of Scots who were quite delighted he got in). Why Bush? Because I could see little difference between him and Kerry on most issues – Kerry would stay in Iraq, Kerry would make little change to the economic status quo in the US, Kerry would not sign up to Kyoto. In what ways would this multi-billionaire be different? The only things I could see were on abortion and gay marriage. For me abortion is as key an issue as racism. I would no more vote for a pro-abortionist than I would for a racist. The other reason I wanted Bush to win is almost as a kind of perverse reaction to the ignorant, prejudiced and hysterical anti-Americanism so prevalent amongst the so called educated in the British media. It has been embarrassing to see just how vicious (and ignorant) the anti-Bush camp has been.

The other thing that surprised me was the amount of interest in the US election in Britain – in many ways stirred up by this populist view of Bush as the anti-Christ/ reincarnation of Hitler. I doubt that the British election next year will stir up as much passion or interest as the US Presidential election did this year. One reason for this is that we know the importance of the US election for us – because the US is the only Superpower left. Our soldiers are also fighting and dying in Iraq. Another is that we know who will win the British election. Tony Blair is guaranteed a third term – mainly because of the ineptness and incoherence of the opposition. Like Kerry they offer little real alternative and in that case better the devil you know..

From a political point of view the ‘idiot’ Bush managed to run a brilliant campaign which completely outfoxed the Democrats. With American becoming more and more embedded in a war which was supposed to be over a year ago, with an economy struggling to get out of debt and a weakening dollar, and with a President whose approval ratings were dropping, one would have thought that the situation was tailor made for a runaway Kerry victory. The conventional wisdom was that the higher the turnout the more likely a Democrat win. The turnout was up over 15 million. Yet the opposite happened. Bush got a clear majority. The Republicans strengthened their hold on both the Senate and Congress. So from the Democratic point of view, what went wrong?

Some would suggest that it was a lack of money or professionalism within the Kerry campaign. No. The Democrats actually had more money that the Republicans. Billions poured in from Billionaires and corporations. The liberal 527 group America Coming Together (ACT) spent more that $125 million registering voters and getting them to turn out. ACT actually employed 30,000 people in Ohio alone on the day of the election. The Republicans on the other hand relied a lot more on volunteers. As regards the campaign itself I thought that Kerry did well. He came across very well in the televised debates and as far as I could see seemed to be making some ground into the perception that he was somewhat aloof.

So what made the difference? Karl Rowe, the brilliant Republican strategist, was quite clear in his priorities in the months before the election. He estimated that 4 million evangelicals failed to vote in the 2000 election. Therefore he made it his priority to get them out. A simplistic analysis would suggest that he succeeded. However, whilst there is an element of truth in this, it does not explain the difference. 25% of evangelicals did not vote for Bush. Of just as much importance was the increase in support for Bush from Hispanics and Catholics.

I would suggest that Bush won because many people really like him, many trust him, and America is currently at war. Given the prevarication of Kerry it is not surprising that many Americans decided to stick with their commander in chief. That still leaves the moral dimension. One newspaper in Britain quipped that it was an election about ‘Guns, Gays and God’. Kerry made a fundamental mistake by not speaking out more forcefully against gay marriage (as Bill Clinton, that master tactician, urged him to), thus allowing himself to be portrayed as a man who would undermine marriage. The US is fundamentally a socially conservative country and likes the idea of marriage (the irony is that divorce is more likely in the ‘red’ states than the ‘blue’ ones). Furthermore what is wrong with morality (even when it is used in a very limited sense)? It may suit some of our media to sneer at those whom they would describe as ignorant rednecks, but that sneering says more about the prejudices and ignorance of our media than it does about those who voted for Bush. Morality is important and if Bush won it on that issue then who are we to complain? It certainly beats the idea that everything is about money.

I wonder if I should give the Democrats a call. I know how they could win the next election. They don’t need to pay millions for consultants. I will gladly offer my services for free! Here’s the plan. Firstly they need to choose a candidate who will really go for the moral issue. Someone who will defend marriage and who opposes abortion. Someone who can point out that the number of abortions in the US reached a twenty four year low in 2001 when Bush took office but since then has started to rise again. Someone who will point out that morality is also about poverty and the environment. And some brave Christian who will point out how unbiblical and wrong it is that the US is heading towards a $7 TRILLION debt! Whatever happened to ‘owe no man nothing’?! Who will suffer as the US government has to finance that debt? Not the rich – who will continue to get their tax cuts – but the poor – and especially the poor in other countries. And speaking of the economy the world desperately needs a President who will address the issue of the weak dollar. It is quite ridiculous that the policies of the Bush government are keeping the dollar artificially weak just to, in the short term, protect American jobs.

The Democrats need a candidate who will offer a decent health service for all and who will challenge the poverty gap in the US. And they need someone who will support the ‘war on terror’ – pointing out the weaknesses of the Bush administrations post war plans but agreeing that the US has a right to defend itself and take on the terrorists. Of course there is no chance of the Democrats choosing such a candidate. They have allowed themselves to be sidetracked so that supporting gay marriage and abortion is the cause celebre for those who wish to consider themselves radical. In Britain, David Steel, the author of the current British abortion laws, has even admitted that it would be wise to reduce the age to 12 weeks. In the US Democratic Party he would be ostracised for even suggesting that. After all there are still those Democrats who think that the barbarity of partial birth abortion is somehow defending women’s rights! And there is no chance of the Democrats really taking on and reforming the Capitalist system – they are after all funded by billionaires such as George Soras who have made their money by speculating with that system.

Atlanta

Now I am sitting in Atlanta airport on the way home. The one striking thing is the men (and a couple of women) in their desert khaki – obviously heading out to Iraq. The young man sitting across from me can be no more than a year older than my son. What is he going out to? What fate awaits him? There is no doubt that this is a nation at war. I actually admire these people – the Americans are fighting for what they believe in. And I think that Bush and others really believe they are doing a good thing which will not only help their country but will also help others. I have been reflecting more and more on the war in Iraq. I still have doubts but increasingly I am being drawn towards the notion that it is a just war. The inadequacy of the UN to deal with Dafur and Sudan suggests that it would have had no chance in dealing with Saddam. Whatever the case we hope and pray it is over soon.

So let us pray for President Bush. And for all his advisors. A lot is at stake. Not just the peace and prosperity of the Western world (and perhaps the rest of the world as well) but also, sadly, the reputation of the Gospel. For better or for worse the Christian church in the US has largely hitched its wagon to the Bush horse. IMHO that is a big mistake. It is always an error for the church to be identified with any party political system or philosophy. It leads to confusion about what the Gospel is, both outwith and within the Church – (I remember being collared by an American brother who equated support for ‘socialised medcine’ as a sin along with the other ten commandments!). But that does not stop us praying for our brother, President Bush, and asking that the Lord would grant him and his government success. And who knows – perhaps in four years time we will be celebrating a Presidency which has defended the poor, helped create peace, protected the environment and given a culture of life and hope to the American people. We can but hope. And Pray.

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